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VG15031: ECONOMIC MODELLING
OF IMPACT OF INCREASED VEGETABLE
INTAKE ON HEALTH EXPENDITURE
FACILITATORS:
Project VG15031 has recently been completed by Deloitte Access
Economics for Horticulture Innovation Australia Limited.
INTRODUCTION
The Australian Bureau of Statistics has estimated that about 93
per cent of Australian adults aged older than 18 years do not get
the recommended daily vegetable intake of approximately five or
more serves.
There is a marked difference in consumption between
men and women, with less than four per cent of males
consuming the recommended daily intake of vegetables
compared to more than 10 per cent of females.
Overall, the average Australian eats 2.3 serves of vegetables
per day, which is less than half the recommended amount.
Australia is in the bottom half of the Organisation for Economic
Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries in terms of
vegetable consumption – behind countries such as Canada, the
United States and New Zealand.
ABOUT THE PROJECT
In 2016, Deloitte Access Economics was commissioned by
Horticulture Innovation Australia Limited (Hort Innovation) to
model the impact of increased vegetable consumption on
government health expenditure and producer returns.
David Creelman, Manager at Deloitte Access Economics, said
the project’s aim was twofold – to estimate how much money
governments could save if Australians ate more vegetables and
how much additional profit Australian vegetable producers
would make if vegetable consumption increased.
“Health expenditure in Australia continues to increase, and the
most recent data shows that health spending has reached 10 per
cent of GDP,” he said.
“One way to reduce health expenditure is for Australians to eat
more vegetables – about one per cent of health expenditure is
due to people not eating the recommended five serves a day.”
Mr Creelman said there was a well-established link between
increased intake of vegetables and improved health outcomes.
“There is strong evidence to show that eating the
recommended amount of vegetables reduces the risk of
developing cardiovascular disease and some cancers,” he said.
“Fewer cases of cardiovascular disease and cancer means
that less money could be spent on treating these diseases.”
The objectives of the project were to assist Hort Innovation to:
• Identify the potential reduction in health costs due to an
increase in vegetable intake.
• Develop a business case for external funding support from
other sources with an interest in improved health outcomes
resulting from increased vegetable intake.
• Identify the increase in grower returns from an increase in
vegetable consumption.
It involved an academic literature review, construction of detailed
economic models and development of a report.
MAJOR FINDINGS
If people increased their vegetable intake by 10 per cent (about
two extra carrots per week, or an extra handful of broccoli per
week), governments in Australia would save $100 million per year,
Mr Creelman said.
“This is because there would be fewer cases of cardiovascular
disease and cancer, and so the cost of treating these cases –
such as hospitals, medicines, doctors, allied health professionals
and pathology – could be avoided,” he said.
“If men increased their intake to match that of females, then
governments would save $58 million per year.”
He said these results, while compelling, were hardly surprising.
“Everyone knows that eating vegetables is good for you, and that
most people would benefit from eating more vegetables.