AUSVEG is cautioning against a false sense of security as the impacts of the Middle East conflict continue flowing through Australia’s vegetable industry, leading to continuing widespread uncertainty for vegetable growers and future supply of Australian-grown vegetables.

An updated AUSVEG survey of almost 200 growers taken two-and-a-half months into the conflict, shows production cost surges remain unsustainably high, while serious questions linger over the future availability of critical farming inputs.

Key findings from the latest survey include:

• Growers’ median diesel costs have increased by 61 percent since the start of the conflict.
• Growers are facing average fuel surcharges on freight of more than 35 percent.
• Growers’ median fertiliser costs have increased by 51 percent since the start of the conflict.
• Concerns over supply of horticulture fertiliser mixes including potassium ammonium sulphate, calcium nitrate, potassium nitrate and ammonium phosphate continue to be raised by some growers.
• Growers report packaging, PVC piping and other irrigation fittings are increasingly in short supply, with shortages and price surges also reported for key inputs like lubricants, tyres and steel.
• Overall grower production costs increased by an average of 28 percent since the start of the conflict, and were as high as 79 percent for some growers. (Variability in overall production cost increases reflects the diversity of crops produced across the Australian vegetable industry, seasonal factors and variable flow-through impacts on different vegetable growing regions and production systems.)

Higher costs and continuing widespread uncertainty are still leading vegetable growers to adjust their plans, with 24 percent in the May 2026 survey having reduced planting schedules, and 30 percent actively considering their planting programs. On average, growers who reduced planting did so by 23 percent.

The need for growers to receive viable farmgate returns remains a pressing priority with growers also indicating they have only been able to recover an average 17 percent of recent production cost surges from their customers. Deflated wholesale markets leading to downward pressure on grower returns are also contributing to viability concerns.

However, lower wholesale prices are continuing to offer good value for consumers, with recent data showing vegetables on average costing just 74c per serve, and retail prices for staple crops such as carrots as low as 19c per serve. Current market conditions highlight the importance of Australian consumers making the most of the great value healthy, fresh vegetables continue to represent by buying more Australian-grown vegetables to increase demand and support viable returns for growers.

State-specific insights reflecting variable impacts from the most recent survey include:

The latest survey findings re-affirm variable flow-on impacts are continuing to be felt differently in key vegetable growing regions across the country, reflecting the diversity and geographic spread of the national vegetable industry.

• Growers report mixed fuel availability across states, with respondents in NSW holding the lowest stocks over coming weeks, and reporting more fuel shortages. Growers in Queensland reported fewer shortages and relatively better fuel stocks.
• All states reported some moderation in fuel price increases since the initial March 2026 survey, with the exception of Tasmania where costs spiked further (noting Tasmania recorded among the lowest initial spikes in the earlier survey). Despite some moderation, fuel costs overall remained significantly elevated compared to the start of the conflict.
• Fertiliser price increases continued to spike in most jurisdictions, compared to the earlier survey, with the most pronounced increases reported in Tasmania and Western Australia.

As the conflict has continued affecting new areas of growers’ businesses in new ways, impacts on supply of Australian-grown vegetables are expected to continue flowing through over the medium term. The latest survey showed 34 percent of growers expected to see reduced harvests in the next three months, while 26 percent predicted that reduced volumes would not flow through for another six months.

AUSVEG CEO Michael Coote said: ‘The Middle East conflict’s impacts are continuing to be felt across the economy, and AUSVEG’s latest survey shows Australia’s vegetable growers are continuing to face a unique set of viability-threatening challenges.

“While the immediate, acute impacts that hit at the start of the conflict represented a perfect storm for vegetable growers after years of challenging business conditions and tightening margins, almost three months into that conflict, we may be in the eye of that storm.

“Reactive government measures to secure supplies of critical inputs like fuel and fertiliser may have temporarily blunted some of the more acute shortage concerns from earlier in the conflict but how long that lasts is very unclear, as unsustainably elevated production costs persist, and uncertainty over future input availability remains high.

“While Australian vegetable growers are committed to feeding Australian consumers, many have been forced to adjust their planting schedules and plans in response to the difficult operating environment. The longer uncertainty continues, the longer the impacts on supply of Aussie-grown vegetables available for Australian consumers will be felt, with growers indicating the effects of decisions they are making today, may not be felt for weeks, or months down the line.

“Despite the severe impacts on vegetable growers, there has not been a corresponding increase in vegetable prices at the checkout, meaning Aussie-grown vegetables remain a great value and healthy option for Australian families.

“To avoid the continuing erosion of vegetable grower viability, and threats to the future supply of Australian-grown vegetables available to Aussie families, it is critical as a nation, we are not lulled into a false sense of security.

“To ensure Aussie families continue to have access to affordable, fresh and high-quality domestically-grown vegetables, AUSVEG urges all consumers to buy more Aussie-grown vegetables.

“To provide much needed assurances to an industry that supplies 10,000 tonnes of fresh produce into the domestic market each day, and 98 percent of the fresh vegetables consumed by Australians, it is critical that the Government confirms Australian vegetable growers will be prioritised for access to critical inputs as a sector of national importance.

“It is equally important that all commercial fresh produce buyers re-affirm their commitment to an Australian vegetable industry that is critical to Australia’s food security by considering all evidence-based requests for viable returns from growers in good faith, and prioritising Australian produce – whether fresh, frozen or processed – over cheap, inferior frozen and processed product.”

AUSVEG is continuing to call for the necessary short, medium and longer-term government commitments and actions, to help growers weather and navigate the immediate severe impacts and challenges, to protect the viability of Australian vegetable producers, and supply of Australian-grown fresh vegetables for all Australians into the future.

More details on AUSVEG’s policy response priorities are available here.